Portfolio Resilience2022 marked a negative year for markets, as inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical strife weighed on stocks, bonds, housing, and just about every global asset market. A few of the questions looming in investors’ minds for 2023 include:… Read More
When Lower Stock Prices & Higher Rates are Good
Stocks Are Getting Cheaper In his 1997 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffet explained why declining stocks are good news for long-term investors: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should… Read More
How to Avoid Financial Anxiety & Can the Federal Reserve Engineer a Soft Landing?
The Big Picture ~ Financial Discipline and Happiness Global markets are in the midst of a bear market, with developed market stock prices down approximately 20% from the peak reached in early January. This is the 14th of these episodes… Read More
The 4 Big Risk Factors for a Recession in 2022-2023
The Big Picture ~ Recessions and Bear Markets This year, the S&P 500 peaked on January 3rd at an all-time high of 4,796. Since then the index has dropped 4.6% through the end of March. This is a relatively modest… Read More
Staying Invested with the K.I.S.S. Strategy
The Big Picture – Staying Invested We are strong adherents of the KISS (“keep it simple stupid”) philosophy when it comes to investing. Focus on a few things that matter: prudent asset allocation, quality of earnings and dividend growth, competitive… Read More
Signal vs Noise – Q4 2021 Client Letter
Investing, by definition, is a long-term endeavor. But investing for the long-term means staying focused through periods of short-term volatility, and frequently negative news flow. As the old saying in media goes, “if it bleeds, it leads”. Big down days… Read More
The Nobel Prize Winner vs. The Secretary
In 1994 a legendary wall street bond trader launched a new hedge fund with $1 billion in assets, recruiting several top traders, two future Nobel prize winners and several PhD’s from MIT. In its first three years the fund posted… Read More
5 Factors for the U.S. Economy to Boom [Video]
The 5 main factors that could cause the U.S. economy to boom like it did during the 1920s. Employment GDP Growth Corporate Earnings Financial Markets U.S. Consumer Health 5 Factors for the Economy to Boom like the Roaring 20s
The Roaring 20s
The Covid19 induced recession of 2020 led to the strongest fiscal and monetary policy response in history. The stimulus was global in nature, and has likely set the world up for a significant boost to growth in the years to… Read More
Price (Still) Matters
Looking back over the last year reminds us why our 5th and final core investment principle is: “you cannot predict the future”. Hindsight analysis suggests the Federal Reserve induced liquidity, low interest rates, and massive fiscal stimulus were the reason… Read More