Portfolio Resilience2022 marked a negative year for markets, as inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical strife weighed on stocks, bonds, housing, and just about every global asset market. A few of the questions looming in investors’ minds for 2023 include:… Read More
When Lower Stock Prices & Higher Rates are Good
Stocks Are Getting Cheaper In his 1997 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffet explained why declining stocks are good news for long-term investors: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should… Read More
How to Avoid Financial Anxiety & Can the Federal Reserve Engineer a Soft Landing?
The Big Picture ~ Financial Discipline and Happiness Global markets are in the midst of a bear market, with developed market stock prices down approximately 20% from the peak reached in early January. This is the 14th of these episodes… Read More
The 4 Big Risk Factors for a Recession in 2022-2023
The Big Picture ~ Recessions and Bear Markets This year, the S&P 500 peaked on January 3rd at an all-time high of 4,796. Since then the index has dropped 4.6% through the end of March. This is a relatively modest… Read More
Staying Invested with the K.I.S.S. Strategy
The Big Picture – Staying Invested We are strong adherents of the KISS (“keep it simple stupid”) philosophy when it comes to investing. Focus on a few things that matter: prudent asset allocation, quality of earnings and dividend growth, competitive… Read More
The Roaring 20s
The Covid19 induced recession of 2020 led to the strongest fiscal and monetary policy response in history. The stimulus was global in nature, and has likely set the world up for a significant boost to growth in the years to… Read More
Price (Still) Matters
Looking back over the last year reminds us why our 5th and final core investment principle is: “you cannot predict the future”. Hindsight analysis suggests the Federal Reserve induced liquidity, low interest rates, and massive fiscal stimulus were the reason… Read More
The Financial Impact of Low Interest Rates
Perhaps no picture better represents the financial impact of Covid than that of the 10-year Treasury yield. While rates have remained below 3% for most of the last decade, the post Covid drop below 1% for the first time ever… Read More
Bull Market, Bear Economy
AMM 3rd Quarter 2020 Client Letter Imagine a modern day Rip Van Winkle had imbibed a bit too much on New Year’s Eve 2019 and fell into a long 6 month slumber. He awakens to a strange new world. People… Read More
Predicting the Past
AMM First Quarter 2020 Client Letter A few years ago we attended the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society’s annual forecast dinner in San Diego. Attendees were a group of mostly professional analysts charged each year with the task of predicting… Read More