Yesterday we started selling Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) in all client portfolios that held shares. We first bought Hilton in February 2017 after it completed its three-way spin-off transaction. Hilton separated its timeshare business, real estate holdings, and hotel management… Read More
Why We Sold Procter & Gamble (PG)
We liquidated our position in Proctor and Gamble (PG) earlier this week. While the position had generated positive total returns, dividend growth has stalled in recent years and the company is facing secular headwinds related to their core business. Below… Read More
Stitch Fix Sales Boosted by the Reciprocation Bias
Stitch Fix (SFIX) will soon do an IPO. Stitch Fix is a new way to sell clothes. A highly personalized selection of clothes for you to try on in the comfort of your home. Keep what you like and return… Read More
Humira Biosimilar Threat: Who Gets the Customer First?
The concern with AbbVie’s blockbuster biologic Humira is the lost of patent exclusivity in the U.S. and Europe over the next two years. The worry is revenue from Humira will drop off a cliff as generic drugs enter the market…. Read More
Why We Sold Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC)
On Friday, July 7, we sold Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC). Kraft Heinz is a long-term holding in AMM Dividend Strategy portfolios. We first received shares when the original Kraft split into 2 companies, Mondelez (MDLZ) and Kraft Foods (KRFT). Then… Read More
How Likely is 9% Growth for Starbucks?
A key component in the economic profit models I ran for Starbucks is the assumption that Starbucks will maintain a growth rate of 9% over the next 5-10 years. A common estimate I’ve seen in other research pieces. The question… Read More
Valuing Starbucks with Economic Profit Models
: My original economic profit model had an error. It was overestimating future invested capital. I kept the original images of each economic profit model but added updated values below them. This also changes my conclusion about Starbucks being overvalued… Read More
Snapchat and the Substitution Heuristic
We have a cognitive quirk. We have a bunch but let’s focus on one. When faced with a hard or complex problem instead of answering it we swap it for an easier question to answer. We believe we have answered… Read More
Is Procter & Gamble Having its Netflix Moment with Harry’s and Dollar Shave Club?
Blockbuster dominated the movie rental business. It had stores all over the U.S. Renting movies was a good business with good margins. The big drawback was when the movies were not returned on time. With a DVD sitting in someone’s… Read More
BlackRock Continues to Ride the Passive Investing Trend for the Better
The irony of this post is not lost on us. An active manager excited about another active manager moving more towards factor and algorithmic based investing. On Tuesday, BlackRock laid out an ambitious plan to consolidate a large number of… Read More
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